SOCIAL MEDIA INTELLIGENCE REPORT (SMIR)
1 February 2019
PUBLiCUS Asia Inc. launches its Social Media Intelligence Report as a guide to the May 2019 elections. A monthly report will be released to the public to guide the voters, campaigners and candidates on the blue ocean strategy re using digital for political campaigns. The election battlefields today are divided into three: ground, air and digital.
Philippine digital space based on the recently released 2019 We Are Social global survey report revealed: 76 million Filipinos are internet users, or a penetration rate of 71 percent. Unique mobile users stand at 72 million, while active mobile social users are at 71 million, or 72% penetration. The number one social media platform in the country is Facebook, with over 2 million joining since the last report in 2018 at 50 Million. Internet users in the Philippines have an average of 10 hours and 2 minutes per day using the Internet via any device and an average daily time of 4 hours and 58 minutes using mobile Internet.
For the May 2019 midterm elections, there are 61,843,728 total registered voters; 55.9 percent of the voting population nationwide is in Luzon. Visayas and Mindanao account for the remaining 44.05 percent. Visayas is at 20.82 percent, while Mindanao accounts for 23.23 percent. Balance Luzon is bigger than combined Visayas-Mindanao at 44.45 percent, while NCR is at 11.50 percent.
PUBLiCUS has tracked social media use via its #PahayagSurveys (ANNEX A) from nationwide (August 2017), Luzon (May 2018) and NCR (November 2018). Majority of the voters have smart phones and is common to access social media using it (ANNEX B). Among the popular social media platforms, Facebook is most commonly accessed (ANNEX C). A third of the voters get news about government leaders, politics, current events from social media (ANNEX D). 75% of voters say internet-based news is important for them (ANNEX E).
SMIR was generated using a proprietary software of AutoPolitic with its CXO, Roger Do, serving as Social Intelligence Analyst to PUBLiCUS . The Report is as of January 16, 12:01 am, extracting social media data from December 15, 2018, to December 31, 2018, (4,193,128 data points) and from January 1, 2019 to January 15, 2019 (4,932,905 data points). All the extracted data are from social media content, reactions, behavior index, and the nature of the extracted data was passive, without an active stimulus. This report does not include active stimulus triggering biases in the form of questions, survey, or polling.
The SMIR measures the preconceived opinion of the potential voters that is formed prior to official filing and after. The SMIR measures the stability of each qualified candidate’s perception among voters. This framework does not specifically differentiate probable event-based factors but measures the impact the event has on candidates, roughly shifting in perceptions and exposures.
SMIR covers four (4) ranking metrics: Exposure, Popularity, Virality and Social Capacity. PUBLiCUS is making public these rankings. Succeeding monthly reports will cover only exposure, popularity and virality.
The monthly ranking by social capacity can be ordered from PUBLiCUS for the Top 30 Senate candidates. This will cover metric change, high confidence and competitive rankings.
PUBLiCUS is a 16-year old political consulting firm based in Manila with ASEAN as practice area. Its core competencies are lobbying, campaigns, competitive intelligence, strategic communication and capacity building.
Table 1. Exposure, Popularity, Virality
Table 2. Social Capacity
Table 3. Confidence and Competitive
Ranked by Exposure
Measures the total exposure generated about the candidate, without differentiating the exposure contribute derived from paid, owned, or earned channels.
Ranked by Popularity
Admin By inverse inference, it measures the voter’s fascination with specific candidates.
This metric is disproportionately influenced by 1) larger group size, 2) specific media channels, 3) unexpected scandal, 4) specific content responding to popular current events, and 5) paid-for advertisement and paid for boosting.
Ranked by Virality
Measures the spread potential of a candidate’s content, which is critical to measure a campaign’s potential to cross the channel barrier between various media, and in creating true virality. For this measure, data have been transformed into a weighted ranking to normalize the biased factors present in the Ranked by Popularity. These factors, while can be further influenced by advertising, measures a campaigns’ communication effectiveness, and helps calculate the potential voter’s reaction to surprise, scandals, and end of campaign period messages.
Ranked by Social Capacity
Measures a candidate’s own social media channel in converting their followers into productive vote-generating capacity, in form of volunteers and donors, and actual votes. This measures the integrative power of a campaign to motivate volunteers into campaign workers and donors. While the size of a group will determine the electoral outcome at a later campaigning stage, this measures each candidate’s potential to transform social followers into an electoral army.
Candidates in this category are evaluated to be elected to the position based on their exposure on media, the voter’s reaction, and the campaign capacity to transform the large social following into productive vote-getting capacity. While the campaign is susceptible to the usual impairment arising from scandal, negative attacks and reversal of fortune, the social presence and social capacity of the candidate should also be an asset in retarding the voter slippage and regression from those events.
Candidates in this category are evaluated to be most likely to be elected to the position but some factors are missing or insufficient. The total social capacity may be missing due to small group size, lack of momentum or low-quality following that is unlikely to convert social following into productive vote-getting resource.
NOTE: THIS IS NOT A SURVEY
For questions/inquiries please contact:
- Mr. Jake Bergonia | Mobile: +63 928 505 2010
- Mr. Roger Do | Viber: +65 9617 0294