POLITICAL ISSUES

Federalism

Awareness of Federalism and main source of news about federalism

Only 43% of the voters in the National Capital Region are aware of the proposal to shift the country’s form of government, and very few (5%) have a full understanding of the matter.  Among those aware, 94% said that their main source of information about Federalism is TV, 22% said radio, 18% said newspapers, and 12% said social media websites (Facebook, Twitter, etc.).

Opinion on the elements of federalism

As most of those who have heard about Federalism claimed limited or no understanding of it, elements of Federalism have yet to earn the public’s favorability. Among those aware, 40% favor equal election of two senators in each region of the federal government, 27% favor that they directly vote for the president, 26% favor a semi-presidential form of government, and only 18% favor that a vote for the president is also a vote for the vice president.

Among those aware, 38% say they favor a presidential form of government while 18% favor a hybrid parliamentary and presidential form, 10% favor a parliamentary form, and 34% said they have no knowledge about it.

44% of voters agree that the way the government allocates its resources causes poverty, while 34% disagree. More than majority of the voters in Malabon, Navotas, Pateros, and San Juan disagreed on the said statement. The remaining 22% say that they do not know anything about it.

Another hurdle in gaining the support of the people is their fragmented opinion on the portrayal of the National Capital Region and the other regions. Of the voters who are aware, 74% believe that the Philippines is rich. Meanwhile, 51% think that the image of the country is not measured in terms of Manila. Same percentage of the voters at 46% each say that the fund brought to other parts of the country are little, and that the development is rare if the place is far from Manila.

Regarding the statements when Federalism takes place, 52% of the ones who are aware believe that their place is rich, but do not know their place’s resources. Just a percentage lower (51%) of those who are aware say that the decision about their future is in their hands and in the local leadership. An equal percentage of people think that there are more resources in their town and that they do not need to go to Manila.

Among those aware, 34% of voters affirm that their governor or mayor has the capability to perform more powers if the country shifts to a federal system. In addition, 28% think that political dynasties can control the elections in a federal system. There are 27% who believe that the politics will change into a federal, semi-presidential form of government. Lastly, 22% of voters say that life will improve if the country shifts to a federal system.

When to shift to a federal system

Among the aware voters, only 21% want the government to shift to a federal form of government right away, while 79% say there should be a transition period so the change in form of government is orderly.  Of the voters who want to shift right away, 54% say they want the Constitution changed before 2020, under the term of President Duterte. On the other hand, 19% want it to happen before 2022, near the end of President Duterte’s term. Lastly, 24% of the voters say not this time while 3% say never.

Division of regions

When asked about what they think is the initial effective division of regions in a federal system, 42% say to just follow the present regional division, 31% want it to be grouped by islands first (Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao, and NCR) so that it is financially viable, and 27% say to let it be according to the agreement of cities that they are going to group together.

Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL)

Awareness of the BBL

39% of the voters are aware of BBL, while 61% say they are not aware. Among those aware, only 8% say they understand the discussions about the BBL, and 47% say their understanding is not full. Lastly, 44% have no understanding about it even though they have listened or watched discussions about it.

Favorability of BBL among National Capital Region voters

Among those aware, when asked whether they favor having BBL in Mindanao or not, 19% say they favor it while 48% say they do not. Meanwhile, there are 33% who do not know whether they favor it or not.

Agreement/Disagreement with possible effects of the BBL

About the possible effects of the BBL in Mindanao, 39% of the aware voters agree that the BBL will likely increase economic output, employments, investments which will increase Mindanao’s overall contribution to national output and development. Additionally, the same percentage of people also agree that the sustained policies for peace and the continuing and committed investments in social, physical, economic, and cultural infrastructure will likely correct the socioeconomic disparities in the region and the rest of Mindanao, raise human development, and reduce poverty.

Among the aware voters, 36% agree that as the security condition normalizes and economic activity resumes with vigor in the region, the intra- and interregional trade between and among the Mindanao regions, and with other regions in the country will be enhanced, in addition to foreign investors foreseen to inject fresh capital in the region.

On the other hand, 38% say that the BBL will not really bring peace in Mindanao even if it is passed into law because there are still other rebel groups like the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, MNLF, and Abu Sayyaf, who are still in good fighting spirit. The said voters believe that the exclusion of these rebel groups in the negotiations is enough to make them reject the BBL. However, 35% think that the BBL will not bring peace to Mindanao because not only it favors only one Muslim rebel group, but also favors one religious group over others. The mentioned voters say that using religion to appeal for a group’s agenda should not have been entertained from the start.

46% of those aware agree that as security normalizes and economic activity resumes with vigor in the region, the intra- and interregional trade between and among the Mindanao regions, and with other regions in the country will be enhanced, in addition to foreign investors foreseen to inject fresh capital in the region.

Finally, 34% agree that even if Congress passes the BBL, the Supreme Court will just declare it unconstitutional as during the time of President Arroyo’s proposed MOA-AD because it violated the rights of non-Muslims in Mindanao. When this happens, the members of the MILF will throw a tantrum and proceed to wreak havoc in the region.

Military Influence in Civilian Governance

A little more than the majority of the voters in the National Capital Region at 53% say that former military officials can be given cabinet positions and that the president should appoint a former military official who focuses on work instead of politics, hardworking, and acts fast. Among the 53%, 49% say that the influence of military people in the Duterte administration is big or significant. Among those who say that former military officials can be given cabinet positions, 85% say that the influence of the military in the Duterte administration is good for the country. Lastly, 65% believe that President Duterte’s decision to include the Bureau of Customs under military operations is right.