PAHAYAG NATIONAL ELECTION TRACKER: FEBRUARY (PT-FEB) is an independent, non-commissioned survey conducted by PUBLiCUS Asia Inc. It is the first edition of the 2022 NATIONAL ELECTION SURVEY SERIES under the PAHAYAG brand. The survey period was from February 11 to February 16, 2022.
PT-FEB is a nationwide purposive sampling survey comprised of 1,500 respondents that were randomly drawn from a market research panel by the Singapore office of American firm PURESPECTRUM. The sampling was guided by statistics generated from official COMELEC data.
PT-FEB gauged voter preferences for PRESIDENT, VICE PRESIDENT, and SENATOR. Additional election-related questions such as pressing national issues were also included in PT-FEB.
- The sample can be described as predominantly middle class (ABC) given the observed distributions in INCOME, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, INTERNET ACCESS, CABLE ACCESS, and SOCIAL MEDIA USAGE RATES. Alternatively, the sample can be viewed to be comprised mostly of respondents heavily steeped in social media.
- PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES
- Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr. (BBM) notched a preference share of 52% in PT-FEB to maintain his top spot in the polls. This figure is in line with his preference share in PAHAYAG 4th Quarter (Dec. 2021). In second place is Leni Robredo (LENI) at 22%, which represents a 2% increase from her share in PAHAYAG Q4. It is important to note, however, that this is within the bands defined by sampling variation. Francisco “Isko” Domagoso (ISKO) is a distant third place candidate with a preference share of 8.9%.
- BBM leads LENI in all regional groups except the National Capital Region, where they are statistically tied. BBM holds massive leads over LENI in North-Central Luzon and Mindanao (40% ++). He holds considerable leads in VIS (27% ++) and SL (14% ++).
- VICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES
- Inday Sara Duterte-Carpio (SARA) notched a preference share of 53.5% in PT-FEB, which is statistically similar to her 54.8% share in PAHAYAG Q4. Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan (KIKO) increased his share from 9.7% in December 2021 to 13.7% in February 2022 – enough to secure a distant second place together with Willie Doc Ong’s (ONG) 12.6%. Vicente Tito Sotto III (SOTTO) tumbled to single-digits, from 11% in December 2021 to 9.2% in February 2022.
- SARA’s massive lead over the rest of the field is primarily attributable to her dominance in Mindanao. She also polled around the 50% mark in North-Central Luzon and Visayas. While she performs below her average in the National Capital Region and Southern Luzon, she still leads all candidates in those regional groups. Similar to LENI, KIKO outperforms his national average in NCR.
- SENATORIAL PREFERENCES
- The top spots in the senate race are occupied by returning senators (ESCUDERO and CAYETANO) and a senator seeking re-election (GATCHALIAN).
- Two “new” names (TULFO and VILLAR) are polling well (~35%), enough to secure the fourth and fifth spots.
- The 9th to 12th spots are hotly contested by 12 candidates – with numbers ranging from 18.3% to 26.1%. Notable new names in this zone are DIOKNO, TEODORO, PADILLA, BAUTISTA, GADON, and ROQUE. Also in this zone is former vice president BINAY.
- TOP ISSUES
- The Philippine economy appears to be the top concern for many of the respondents with a total choice share exceeding 60%. Jobs / Job generation is close behind with a total choice share of ~55%.
- The second tier of concerns based on choice share include: Education (33%), Poverty (24%), and Corruption (24%).
- The third tier of concerns based on choice share include: COVID vaccine (16%), peace and order (15%), prices / inflation (11%), and wages (10%).