EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – FINDINGS OF 2021 PAHAYAG FINAL LIST : November 16-18, 2021
PAHAYAG: FINAL LIST is an independent and non-commissioned poll done by PUBLICUS ASIA INC. It was conducted from November 16 to November 18 in order to poll respondents AFTER the deadline of substitution last November 15.
PAHAYAG: FINAL LIST is a nationwide purposive sampling survey comprised of 1,500 respondents from a market research panel of over 200,000 Filipinos maintained by the Singapore office of a US-based firm PURESPECTRUM. The sample was restricted to registered voters and the distribution was guided by parameters based on age, gender, and regional voter population statistics from the COMELEC. The random selection of valid respondents was conducted by PURESPECTRUM.
The survey focuses on preferences for the PRESIDENTIAL and VICE-PRESIDENTIAL races as well as views on TANDEMS.
- PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES BY REGIONAL GROUP
- Table 1 shows former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr (BBM) holds commanding leads across all regional groups. His lead is widest in NCL and MIN. It is narrowest in NCR and SL – where Vice President Ma. Leonor “Leni” Robredo (MLR) is polling above the 20% mark. Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso (FID) is at third place among the names on offer at around 7%. Senator Christopher “Bong” Go (SBG) is at 4% which is in line with his presidential polling numbers from earlier surveys conducted by PUBLICUS ASIA INC.
- Upon comparing the numbers with those obtained from the PAHAYAG: Q3 survey, we find that BBM posted a gain of around 7% (see Table 1). This constitutes a reinforcement of the surge noted in the aforementioned survey – where he polled at around 49%. MLR dropped by 6% because of lower scores in SL, VIS, and MIN. She did, however, maintain robust numbers in NCR and SL. As mentioned earlier, SBG is polling at the level implied by his older presidential polling numbers (4% to 5%). It is of note, however, that he was polling at around 24% in the vice-presidential poll of PAHAYAG: Q3 suggesting a sharp difference between his relative competitiveness for president and his relative competitiveness for vice president.
Table 1. Presidential Preferences by Regional Group
- PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES VS LIKELIHOOD OF CHANGING CHOICE
- As Table 2 shows, BBM recorded the highest share of respondents who indicated that they will definitely not change their choice. Approximately 80% of respondents who chose BBM can be viewed as firm in their choice. MLR posted similar numbers with close to 60% of the respondents who chose her indicating that they are set with their choice and another 18% indicating that they will likely not change their choice. The other candidates polling on or above the 3% mark notched markedly lower “firmness” shares than the aforementioned two candidates.
- It is of note, however, that conversion may prove difficult across many who have chosen a particular candidate. Across all candidates, most of those who are not viewed as “firm” in their choice indicated that they are 50-50 at best – rather than inclined to switch (see Table 2). This suggests that conversion may prove difficult moving forward.
Table 2. Presidential Preferences vs Likelihood of Changing Choice
- VICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES BY REGIONAL GROUP
- Table 3 shows Davao City Mayor Sara “Inday” Duterte-Carpio (ISD) is the most popular choice for vice president across all regional groups. Her lead over the rest of the field is especially massive in MIN. Her lead is narrowest in NCR and SL. Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto III (VTS) is in second place at 10% – a sizeable drop from his numbers in PAHAYAG: Q3.
- The observed decline in the numbers of VTS places him in a virtual tie with Senator Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan (FKP) and Willie “Doc Willie” Ong (DWO) – with all three polling close to 10% (see Table 3).
Table 3. Vice Presidential Preferences by Regional Group
- VICE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES VS. LIKELIHOOD OF CHANGING CHOICE
- In Table 4, ISD registered the highest share of supporters that indicated that they will NOT change their choice – with three out of every four indicating that they are set on voting for her. Upon considering those that are likely NOT going to swap candidates then the share of her “firm” voters is estimated to be around 86%. FKP notched the second highest share of “firm” voters at around 70%.
- It is of note that roughly a quarter of the supporters of any of those in second place (VTS, FKP, and DWO) indicated that they are presently at 50-50 (see Table 4) when it comes to swapping candidates suggesting that the potential for movement at least within that group remains high.
Table 4. Vice Presidential Preferences vs. Likelihood of Changing Choice
- PREFERRED TANDEM BY REGIONAL GROUP
- In Table 5, Around 42% of respondents indicated that they are either INDIFFERENT TO TANDEMS or PREFER SPLIT TICKETS. The majority (around 58%) indicated that they would prefer that their presidential and vice-presidential picks belong to a tandem.
- Around 42% of respondents chose the BBM-ISD tandem. The popularity of this tandem is at its highest in MIN (58%) and at its lowest in SL (30%) (see Table 5). At 2nd place is the opposition tandem of MLR-FKP with 7%. It is of note that the MLR-FKP tandem breached the double-digit mark in NCR – but polled poorly in MIN. All other tandems on offer notched sub-5% levels.
Table 5. Preferred Tandem by Regional Group