PAHAYAG QUARTER 4 (PHYG-Q4) is an independent and non-commissioned poll conducted by PUBLiCUS Asia Inc. The survey period of PHYG-Q4 ran from December 6 to December 10, 2021.
PHYG-Q4 is a nationwide purposive sampling survey comprised of 1,500 respondents that were randomly drawn from a market research panel by the Singapore office of PureSpectrum, a US-based firm. “PureSpectrum is a US based panel marketplace with a multinational presence. Sample provided by PureSpectrum is not affiliated with any bias or political party. All opinions voiced in the interpretation and analyses of the data is that of the writer and/or project sponsor.”
PHYG-Q4 is made up of six (6) modules: 1) State of the Economy and Economic Prospects, 2) National Issues, 3) Scorecard for National Leaders and Institutions, 4) Emotional Quotient of Incumbent Leaders, 5) Media Consumption Habits, and 6) Election Preferences.
- STATE OF THE ECONOMY AND ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
- Table 1 shows that close to 75% of respondents indicated that they expect their prospects to improve in the coming year. A similar proportion of respondents indicated that they expect the economy to improve in the first quarter of 2022. These are significant improvements from PHYG-Q3 levels. These can be attributed to a combination of the following: (1) the easing of COVID-related restrictions, (2) the increase in economic activity, and (3) the seasonal optimism brought about by the onset of the Christmas season.
Table 1. State of the Economy and Economic Prospects
- NATIONAL ISSUES
- On Table 2, THE 3-DAY VACCINATION DRIVE, THE DEPLOYMENT OF MALASAKIT CENTERS, THE GRANTING OF VAT EXEMPTIONS TO SENIORS, and INCREASING PHILIPPINE NAVAL PRESENCE IN AYUNGIN SHOAL garnered total approval levels exceeding 70% and notched single digit total disapproval levels. Around 47% of respondents disapproved of the FILING OF DISQUALIFICATION CASES against former senator and presidential candidate Ferdinand Bongbong Marcos Jr. In contrast, only a quarter approved of these cases.
Table 2. National Issues
- On Table 2, the share of respondents that indicated that the country is headed in the right direction increased slightly from ~63% in PHYG-Q3 to ~68% in PHYG-Q4. The share of respondents that indicated that the country is headed in the wrong direction decreased by around the same magnitude.
Table 3. Country Direction per Area
- According to respondents, the most pressing issues that the president must focus on during the remainder of his term are: THE ECONOMY and JOBS (see Table 4). The choice share of THE COVID VACCINE dropped sharply from 47% in PHYG-Q3 to ~24% in PHYG-Q4.
Table 4. Issues to Focus On by the President
- Table 5 shows that GETTING SICK WITH COVID (47%) remains a popular household-level concern among respondents. It is of note, however, that its overall rate decreased from 63% in PHYG-Q3 and is now more in line with other concerns such as NOT BEING ABLE TO AFFORD BASIC NEEDS (~44%), GETTING SICK WITH A DISEASE APART FROM COVID (~41%), and DIFFICULTY FINDING EMPLOYMENT (~41%).
Table 5. Biggest Household-Level Concern
- SCORECARD FOR NATIONAL LEADERS AND INSTITUTIONS
- The approval rating of PRESIDENT DUTERTE rose in the fourth quarter (see Table 6). It is presently back to its PHYG-Q1 level (~65%) after dipping in PHYG-Q2 (~58%). The approval (~30%) and disapproval (~42%) ratings of VICE PRESIDENT ROBREDO remained steady in PHYG-Q4. The same can be said about the ratings of SENATE PRESIDENT SOTTO albeit with more quarter-to-quarter variability.
Table 6. National Leaders Approval Rating Over Time
Note that the comparisons are only applicable for PHYG-Q1 to Q4. This is because their sampling parameters, questionnaire lengths, and field work windows are comparable. The PAHAYAG: FINAL LIST was a markedly shorter survey with a much narrower field work window in order to capture the immediate effects of the last day of substitution. While comparisons can be made with reference to PHYG-FL, it is important to acknowledge the caveats that result from the aforementioned differences.
- In Table 7, AFP, TESDA, and PAF again notched the highest total approval levels. These agencies alongside the BSP and DSWD registered total approval levels exceeding the 60% mark – with the AFP at ~70%.
- The AFP, TESDA, PAF and BSP appear to be the most trusted agencies in PHYG-Q4. It is worth mentioning that the AFP is the only agency with a total high trust rating above the 50% mark (see Table 8).
Table 7. Institutions Approval Rating Over Time
Table 8. Institutions Trust Rating Over Time
- Table 9 shows that the total high trust rating of PRESIDENT DUTERTE (~55%) appears to have recovered from the dip observed in PHYG-Q2 (~50%). It is now in line with his rating in PHYG-Q1. The total high trust rating of VICE PRESIDENT ROBREDO (~23%) is in line with her three quarter average.
Table 9. National Leaders Trust Rating Over Time
- EMOTIONAL QUOTIENT OF INCUMBENT LEADERS
- PRESIDENT DUTERTE was tagged by at least 50% of respondents in all but one of the traits (RELIGIOSITY). He notched the highest share for BRAVERY (~80%), LOVE FOR THE PHILIPPINES (~72%), DECISIVENESS (~72%), and CONCERN FOR FILIPINOS (~71%).
Table 10. Emotional Quotient of Incumbent Leaders
- MEDIA CONSUMPTION HABITS
- SOCIAL MEDIA remains by far the most popular platform for news for respondents with a high usage rate (at least four times a week) of 72%. TELEVISION NEWS is a distant second at ~55%. RADIO NEWS and PRINT NEWS are far behind with high usage rates hovering around ~29%.
Table 11. Emotional Quotient of Incumbent Leaders
- CNN, GMA7, and PDI again secured the top three spots in terms of total high trust (see Table 12). It is of note, however, that most media outfits (including the aforementioned three) registered decreases in their total high trust ratings and/or increases in their total low trust ratings.
Table 12. Media Trust Ratings
- ELECTION PREFERENCES
- Table 13 shows that over half of respondents (~52%) tagged BONGBONG MARCOS as their preferred choice for president. His choice share increased by 2.6% from his 49.3% in PHYG-Q3. LENI ROBREDO is holding steady from quarter to quarter at around 20% to 21%. ISKO DOMAGOSO dipped from 9% in PHYG-Q3 to ~8% in PHYG-Q4.
Table 13. Preference for President PQ3-Q4
- Close to 55% of respondents tagged SARA DUTERTE-CARPIO as their preferred choice for vice president. Her entry into the vice presidential race broke the three-way tie for first place observed in PHYG-Q3 (see Table 14).
Table 14. Preference for Vice President
- Table 15 shows that CHIZ ESCUDERO (~57%), RODRIGO DUTERTE (~56%), ALAN PETER CAYETANO (~45%), RAFFY TULFO (~42%), and WIN GATCHALIAN (~42%) secured the top five spots of the PHYG-Q4 senatorial poll. The entry of president DUTERTE has made the race even more crowded. Other late entries that appear to have altered the race dynamics include GUILLERMO ELEAZAR (~26%) and HARRY ROQUE (~24%).
Table 15. Preference for Senators