Sara, Bongbong, Isko and Leni tied in top spot

20 Dec

Sara, Bongbong, Isko and Leni tied in top spot

The PAHAYAG End-of-the-Year survey is an independent and non-commissioned poll done by PUBLiCUS Asia Inc. covering the period of December 3-9, 2020. It is a nationwide purposive sampling survey comprised of 1500 respondents drawn from a research panel of approximately 100K Filipinos maintained by a Singapore-based firm. The survey research panel was restricted to registered voters. Parameters based on respondent age and location were also considered in the sample formulation in order for the resulting sample to conform more closely to the features of the voting population as defined by statistics from the COMELEC. The reading was divided by super regions: NCR, Northern and Central Luzon (NCL), Southern Luzon (SL), Visayas (VIS), and Mindanao (MIN).

On the predisposition module of PAHAYAG-EOY, a total of 20 names were fielded for presidential predisposition, with undecided and none from the list options provided to respondents. There is no dominant figure as yet but there appears to be tiers of support from the respondents.

Sara Duterte, Bongbong Marcos, Isko Domagoso and Leni Robredo, the incumbent Vice President are in a four-way tie for the top spot in presidential predisposition. The first tier ranges from 10% to 15% support. Occupying the second tier (10% and below) are Manny Pacquiao, Grace Poe and Tito Sotto. No clear frontrunner can be identified, as yet.

On the other hand, 18 names were in the list for the vice presidential predisposition, with Sara Duterte and Isko Domagoso virtually tied for the top spot at 17% and 16% respectively. Though they are tied, the level of support is not dominant at this time. Trailing behind are Grace Poe, Manny Pacquiao, Bong Go and Tito Sotto with support averaging at 10%. Given that the nominal leaders have relatively low shares, no clear frontrunner can be identified.

For the Senate, a total of 67 names were listed. Willie Ong, Lucy Torres and Vilma Santos-Recto are in the Top 12, with Willie Ong posting a choice rate of ~56%.

Nine (9) modules were analyzed in this run: state of the economy and economic prospects, assessment of COVID-19 responses, national issues, leadership scorecard, emotional quotient of leaders, media consumption habits and responses to media campaigns, predisposition, travel likelihood, and blended learning.

The last PAHAYAG survey was done in August 2020, right after the State of the Nation Address. PUBLiCUS has been doing commissioned surveys as early as 2007 and launched its PAHAYAG brand in 2017 as its CSR, addressing the need for timely, relevant, and actionable information. PUBLiCUS likewise introduced in its PAHAYAG surveys new metrics: Emotional Quotient (or the Love, Care and Solidarity Index), electoral predisposition instead of preference since there are no official list of candidates yet, as well as household sentiments to complement existing optimism metrics. PUBLiCUS also employs its proprietary software (CAPI instead of PAPI) to facilitate the rapid release of results. PUBLiCUS remains committed to ensuring data integrity and the quality of our analytical outputs.

PUBLiCUS currently uses a research panel (i.e. individuals recruited to answer surveys) instead of face-to-face due to the restrictions imposed by COVID-19 and the lockdowns. It is treated as a non-random sample as it did not give every element in the population a nonzero chance of selection, nor did it base sample selection through a fully randomized procedure. Instead, its sample is drawn according to a set of parameters or variables that conform to the population under consideration (i.e. samples have to be a certain age, gender, voter profile, etc.).


Dr. David Yap II
Chief Data Scientist
Cellphone: 09171679643